5 For 25: Predictions For New York Real Estate In 2025
Real estate trends evolve slowly, but recent activity suggests 2025 is shaping up to be a year of ... [+] revitalization for the Manhattan and Brooklyn markets.
In 2025, the New York City real estate market might finally hit its stride after nearly three years of decline. What's in store for Manhattan and Brooklyn? Drawing on the trends from late 2024, here are five predictions that will define the year ahead:
#1: More Buyers
This past fall ended as the most active fall season since 2021, bucking nearly two-and-a-half years of sluggish trends triggered by rising mortgage rates starting in early 2022. This year's fall capped a pivotal shift, with sentiment indicators, such as the ratio of successful to unsuccessful listings or the ratio of demand to supply, which often leads prices by about six months, beginning to climb in May and slowly rising throughout the year. Just as importantly, liquidity, as measured by the rolling 30-day pace of contracts signed, finished November 36% higher than last year and 33% higher than 2022, suggesting the return of buyers to the market is not just a temporary blip. With 2024 finishing on a high note, expect spring 2025 to continue the resurgence of buyers.
Liquidity (30-Day Pace Of Contracts Signed), 2022 to 2024
#2: Fewer Sellers
Spring has traditionally been Manhattan's busiest season for new listings, but a flood of inventory in 2025 seems unlikely. While spring will naturally bring an uptick in activity, the lukewarm listing trends seen during the latter half of 2024 suggest the volume of new sellers will likely hover around the typical seasonal average. This restraint isn't too surprising as many sellers, who may still be cautious after years of market uncertainty, may prefer to wait for a solidified surge in demand before listing.
On the flip side, buyer activity is expected to remain strong, especially as pent-up demand carries over from 2024's active fall season. If demand outpaces supply, leverage could shift firmly toward sellers. This dynamic could create a more competitive environment for buyers, particularly for renovated or well-priced homes, in which the decision-making timespan is compressed.
Monthly New Listings, 2022 to 2024
#3: D-I-Why Not?
After years of paying steep premiums for move-in-ready homes, buyers may rediscover properties with renovation potential. With costs and construction timelines stabilizing, rising prices could make fixer-uppers increasingly attractive. 2025 could see a renewed appetite for homes that need work. The renovation premium, which soared to nearly 30% during its post-pandemic peak, has been gradually returning to its historical average of around 14%.
This shift suggests buyers may be recalibrating their priorities, willing to exchange immediate convenience for the opportunity to add value over time. For intrepid buyers, homes with "good bones" and "potential" may now present the best bang for the buck, especially as prices begin recovering.
Rolling 1-Year Price Per Square Foot, Renovated vs. Unrenovated
#4: Rents Remain (Too) High
The recently passed FARE Act, which stipulates that the party who hires the rental broker is responsible for paying the broker's fee, sparked hopes of cooling the rental market by reducing transactional friction. However, the reality is more nuanced. While the new rules may alter how fees are paid, they don't address the underlying issue, which is a perennial and persistent lack of significant new rental supply.
Without an influx of new inventory, demand will continue to push rents higher, especially in competitive markets like Manhattan and Brooklyn. Renters should prepare for another summer of near-record-high rents, with fierce bidding wars for desirable units remaining the norm. For renters, the advice for 2025 is search early, search often, and act quickly.
Median Asking Rent, 2022 to 2024
#5: Prices Will Rise
Keep an eye on prices in 2025. If stronger buyer activity and tighter inventory continue to align with last summer's bullish reversal in sentiment indicators, Manhattan and Brooklyn may see steady price growth throughout the year. While the increases are unlikely to be dramatic, they will reflect a market regaining its footing, buoyed by renewed confidence and resilience.
Rather than the volatility of previous years, 2025's pricing trends are more likely to show measured, predictable gains more reflective of a healthier market. For sellers, this stability offers a chance to achieve a reasonable exit in a reasonable time as buyers can finally move forward with some clarity on market direction.
Quarterly Median Price Per Square Foot By Contract Signed Date
2025 In Growth Mode
Real estate trends evolve slowly, but recent activity suggests 2025 is shaping up to be a year of revitalization for the Manhattan and Brooklyn markets. While higher mortgage rates and limited supply remain challenges, growing buyer confidence and adaptability are driving the recovery. If 2024 marked the beginning of recovery, 2025 is poised to transition into growth mode. After nearly three years of frustration, sellers are well-positioned to find buyers, and buyers can take comfort in increased market activity and gradually rising prices. Though high rents pose concerns, they underscore strong demand, further supporting the expectation of heightened activity this spring. Looking ahead, the 2025 market in NYC will be one of renewed energy and opportunity for all participants.
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